It was two months in the past when Morgan Rogers was standing on the Sunderland turf, appearing bewildered while the Villa manager admonished him for missing a penetrating pass. Back then, as the club failed to win in six, the question was if his performances were a symptom or the source of the side's broader struggles.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
In the latest match, though, the sideline response proved to be far more favourable. When the in-form star swept in his second strike to reinstate his side's advantage, the Spanish tactician tore off his coat, opened his arms and shouted in triumph. Villa were on their way to a 10th successive win , after failing to win any of their first six fixtures, now sit only three points adrift of table-toppers Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Genuine Hopefuls?
It remains an exceptionally difficult proposition to answer. Past precedent, the traditional standing of Villa, indicates otherwise. Additionally, they've rarely been completely commanding this season, while the victories have stacked up.
Per statistical analysis, in only two games have Villa had an expected goals figure significantly higher than their opponents. For a club who have strung together 10 in a row, Villa look curiously susceptible – yet at the moment the margins are going in their favour.
The Reliant Strategy
The current approach looks like to exchange chances with the opposition before hoping Rogers to save the day with two precise efforts. It happened away to Leeds, it occurred against West Ham, and again against United.
His opener stemmed from a brilliant finish, arced right inside the upright from the corner of the box. The follow-up goal acted as a slightly less clean iteration of the opener capitalizing on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Is It Sustainable?
Reason suggests otherwise. Against United, the opponents registered more shots and more shots on target. The team has secured their last eight victories by a single goal. The defence has been breached in all but one of those games.
A statistical correction might be the most significant challenge Villa have to face as the season progresses. The forward, surely, cannot maintain thrashing his shots into the net's top corner indefinitely.
Reasons for Optimism
Could it be an alternative path in which, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, the level of play rises to match the results. Important figures might still rediscover their best form.
- Ollie Watkins may begin to finding the net regularly.
- Jadon Sancho might become the performer he resembled at Borussia Dortmund.
- The injured centre-backs are set to regain fitness, fortifying a periodically leaky backline.
Perhaps there is in that the potential of a title challenge, but they surely can persist in leaning entirely on a single individual.
Savoring the Moment
However, this is a surprise. It seemed improbable Villa would occupy third at Christmas. And without a doubt two months ago, no one envisioned the midfielder by the end of the year would be leading a championship pursuit and appearing as a crucial England player.
This winning streak must be cherished precisely because it feels so unlikely. When Rogers stood in front of the home supporters at the final whistle orchestrating the applause, he seemed to be loving the experience. As he deserves to. These spells do not happen often and ought to be celebrated.
