A decade following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that split the nation and caused chaos, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in universities but very few politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author endorses unification or the status quo. Both writes two articles that strive for neutrality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and social figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters report they favour unification but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified arguments, he said. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will in the end not succeed but both parties has got something to acquire from the other's positions."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
